Market Update – 29th January 2025.

On Monday, a groundbreaking development from a Chinese AI startup sent shockwaves through U.S. stock markets. DeepSeek, a one-year-old company, unveiled a ChatGPT-like AI model that operates at a significantly lower cost than existing models. What’s even more remarkable is that the system was developed using underpowered AI chips, circumventing U.S. efforts to restrict the supply of high-powered chips to China.

The news rattled tech investors, with chip giant Nvidia falling nearly 17% on Monday, while Meta and Alphabet also posted significant losses. DeepSeek’s rise has sparked renewed interest in undervalued Chinese AI companies, offering a potential alternative growth narrative. The market’s reliance on a select group of tech giants, often referred to as the “Magnificent Seven,” has been a key driver of recent gains, stocks movements on Monday could be seen as a natural period of adjustment rather than a fundamental shift.

On Tuesday, stocks rebounded as investors grew confident that the startup’s affordable AI assistant wouldn’t undermine valuations for Nvidia and other companies, especially given that DeepSeek’s computing power relies on Nvidia chips. With key earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft, and others due this week, markets will likely focus on company outlooks rather than short-term volatility, recognising that DeepSeek’s breakthrough doesn’t necessarily signal the undoing of years of U.S. dominance in AI technology.

In response, President Trump remarked that U.S. tech firms have received a wake-up call to push harder against global competition. However, he noted that the realisation OpenAI-like models can be developed more cost-effectively is ultimately good news for the U.S. tech industry.

Also in the U.S., the Conference Board published data on Tuesday showing that consumer confidence declined in January, with consumers showing the largest decline in assessments of current business and labour market conditions.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer declared that the UK is embarking on a bold “growth mission” following a high-level meeting with Chancellor Rachel Reeves and top business leaders aimed at driving investment into the UK economy. Recent economic data has painted a lacklustre picture, with the economy stagnating between July and September and showing only a modest rise in November.

All eyes are now on Chancellor Reeves, who is set to deliver a speech later today where it is forecast that she will unveil measures designed to reignite economic growth, amid mounting speculation that the government may throw its support behind the construction of a third runway at Heathrow Airport.

Still to come this week we have the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Markets are currently pricing in that the Fed will hold rates steady this time around. We also have Eurozone GDP and unemployment rate. We also have an interest rate decision from the ECB.

Nicola Tune, Portfolio Specialist 

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