Seeing the Bigger Picture: Investing Beyond the Noise.

Market movements can often seem erratic when viewed day to day – prices rise one day, and fall the next, sometimes without any clear explanation. This short-term volatility is especially noticeable during periods of uncertainty, and it’s natural to feel unsettled.

However, taking a step back offers a very different perspective. Over longer time horizons – months, years, or even decades – the noise can begin to fade. What initially looks like chaos, historically has shown to smooth into a more consistent upward trend, and those sharp daily movements, that once felt significant, may start to blend into a  broader picture of long-term growth.

Days

Years

Months

Decades

This shift in perspective reinforces an important truth about investing: short-term market movements are difficult to predict. Markets respond to a wide range of factors – economic data, policy changes, geopolitical events, investor sentiment – many of which can be unpredictable and often short-lived.

History is filled with moments that felt deeply unsettling at the time:

• The Global Financial Crisis (2008), when markets fell sharply in response to a banking system collapse
• The European Debt Crisis (2011), which raised fears over sovereign defaults
• The COVID-19 pandemic (2020), which caused a historic market drop in a matter of weeks
• The Russia-Ukraine conflict (2022) and the global energy and inflation shock that followed

Despite each of these events, markets recovered – and went on to reach new highs. These examples serve as a reminder that while downturns can be uncomfortable, they have historically been temporary.

Staying invested through periods of volatility is key. Exiting the market prematurely not only risks missing the recovery – it can also lock in losses, turning a temporary dip into a permanent setback. Attempting to time the market – to buy and sell at just the right moment – is not only extremely difficult but often leads to missed opportunities.

This is clearly illustrated in the chart below. Starting with an investment of £10,000, the impact of missing just a handful of the market’s best-performing days can be significant – a powerful reminder of the benefits of staying the course.

History consistently shows that, over time, equities tend to reward patient investors. The longer the investment horizon, the less influence short-term swings have on overall returns. This is why “time in the market” is so much more effective than trying to time the market.

During periods of short-term noise, volatility, or policy shifts, a well-diversified portfolio can help cushion the impact. Spreading investments across asset classes—such as equities, bonds, and cash—and across global regions can help smooth returns and reduce reliance on any single market.

Global diversification allows portfolios to benefit from varied economic cycles and policy responses. The chart below, with each colour representing a different asset class, shows how performance can shift significantly year to year. There’s no clear pattern—what leads one year may lag the next—highlighting the value of holding a balanced mix to manage risk and capture opportunity.

This includes exposure to developed markets like the US, where technology and healthcare remain strong, and to high-growth economies such as India and China, supported by long-term trends like digitalisation and rising consumption. Sector diversification adds another layer of balance, avoiding overexposure to any single area.

Instead of reacting to short-term swings, our portfolios follow a research-led, forward-looking process. Our investment team monitors global markets, economic data, and policy developments to keep portfolios aligned with long-term goals while staying flexible as conditions evolve. The investment management team actively manages allocations across these asset classes to capitalise on market opportunities, generating upside while mitigating downside risk.